Local Elections in Türkiye: Erdoğan’s Greatest Setback in Two Decades

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Apr 8, 2024 - 17:33
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Local Elections in Türkiye: Erdoğan’s Greatest Setback in Two Decades
Element5 Digital via Pexels, 30 October 2018

02-04-2024

Team Middle East Researcher

Global Human Rights Defence

Local elections in Türkiye took place on March 31st, 2024. The main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (“CHP”), gained a clear victory in 34 cities of Türkiye, including the major cities of Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, Antalya, and Adana [1]. This main opposition party’s victory has been recorded as the biggest defeat in the history of President Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (“AKP”) [2]. CHP achieved remarkable success even in traditionally conservative areas of Türkiye, earning recognition for their support among AKP strongholds [3]. 

The mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu, respectively, have been instrumental in achieving this victory [4]. İmamoğlu secured a 12 percent margin of victory in Istanbul, while Yavas triumphed in Ankara by a commanding 29 percent margin over the Justice and Development Party candidate [5].

İmamoğlu, in particular, embodied the enthusiasm and hope of opponents throughout Türkiye; once again, he earned the sympathy and support of the people [6]. In December 2022, he was unfairly sentenced to two years in prison and a possible ban on standing for any elections in the future, sparking widespread outcry across Türkiye [7]. After enduring this unjust process, he managed to secure victory in Istanbul, including in neighbourhoods like Eyüpsultan, Beyoğlu, and Üsküdar, which had been considered inaccessible to the CHP for years [8].

İmamoğlu confidently announced to his supporters that their recent victory not only signifies the halt of democratic decline in Türkiye, but also heralds the revival of true democracy [9]. Analysts now see a heightened possibility of İmamoglu positioning himself as President Erdoğan’s primary opponent in the forthcoming presidential elections, scheduled to take place in 2028 [10].

Even in previous elections, there were factions within the main opposition party pushing for İmamoğlu as their presidential candidate [11]. However, this option was not viable due to internal challenges within the CHP. Nonetheless, with the decisive win in Istanbul, Imamoğlu’s chances of becoming the next presidential candidate for the CHP significantly increased [12].

Why would the opposition claim such a big victory after 20 years?

The election was significantly influenced by economic concerns, as citizens felt the pinch of rising inflation and a decrease in purchasing power [13]. Additionally, the AKP's inability to fund election campaigns as robustly as before, due to empty state coffers, altered the political landscape[14].

Economic hardships and a decline in living standards significantly influenced Türkiye’s local elections [15]. Even among AKP supporters, dissatisfaction with the government’s economic performance led many to explore other options [16]. Coupled with ineffective campaign strategies, the AKP faced hurdles at the polls [17].

In this context, the New Welfare Party emerged as a dark horse in the elections, capturing the attention of disillusioned voters [18]. Sharing conservative values with the AKP but offering a fresh alternative, it attracted those seeking change amidst economic turmoil [19].

Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of New York-based consulting firm Teneo, said that “the high inflation, hubris, mediocre candidates, a poor electoral campaign, and being outflanked by its former ally — the New Welfare Party — are the main factors behind the AKP’s defeat” [20].

Female candidates leave a lasting impression 

Another significant aspect of Türkiye’s local elections was the increased representation and success of female candidates compared to the previous elections. In the previous local elections, only four women were elected as city mayors [22]. However, in the recent election, this number rose to eleven cities, marking a notable advancement in female representation in leadership positions [23].

Four of the female mayors were elected from the DEM Party, which advocates for minority rights, particularly those of the Kurdish people [24]. Furthermore, six women were elected from the CHP faction, while one woman was elected from the AKP [25].

Women were also elected to important district municipalities, with particular attention drawn to the city of Izmir in Türkiye [26]. Notably, eight of the district municipalities in Izmir will be governed by women [27].

Sources and further readings:

  • Ibid.
  • Supra note 6.
  • Ibid.
  •  Supra note 4.
  • Supra note 9.
  • Ibid.
  • Ibid.
  • Ibid.
  • Supra note 9.
  • Ibid.
  •  Ibid.
  • Ibid.
  • Ibid.

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